Previous Session Recap
The Bench Mark KSE100 Index opened at 47410.28 with a positive gap and day low remained same as opening. While index posted a day high of 47960.80 during last trading session and it suspended at 47889.37 with net change of 532.77 points and net trading volume of 55.94 million shares. Daily trading volume of KSE100 listed companies dropped by 7.1 million shares or 11.26% on DoD basis.
Foreign Investors remained in net selling position of 2.49 million shares and net value of Foreign Inflow dropped by 0.88 million US Dollars during last trading session. Categorically Foreign Corporate and Overseas Pakistani Investors remained in net selling position of 0.48 and 2.03 million shares but Foreign Individuals remained in net buying position of 14960 shares. While on the other side Local Individuals and Banks remained in net selling position of 6.25 and 0.39 million shares but Local Companies, Mutual Funds and Brokers remained in net buying position of 1.48, 5.66 and 1.76 million shares respectively.
Analytical Review
Asian stocks started the week on a cautious footing on Monday as increased geopolitical risks prompted investors to favor safe-haven bets such as government debt while the dollar benefited from comments from a U.S. central banker. The rise in risks of a conflict contrasts with market watchers outlook for the global economy, which is perhaps the most optimistic it has been in years, with Chinese data this week expected to show the economy performing well. Top aides to U.S. President Donald Trump differed on Sunday on where U.S. policy on Syria was headed after last week attack on a Syrian air base, while U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson warned the strikes were a warning to other nations, including North Korea. A U.S. Navy strike group will be moving toward the western Pacific Ocean near the Korean peninsula as a show of force, a U.S. official told Reuters on Saturday, as concerns grow about North Korean advancing weapons program. "The risks of a conflict have certainly grown and that should keep the dollar supported against most Asian currencies with hawkish comments from the U.S. central bank also helping," said Gao Qi, an FX strategist at Scotiabank in Singapore.
Currency dealers said on Saturday the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has been buying dollars from local banks and borrowing from overseas commercial banks to maintain foreign exchange reserves at the current level of $21.5 billion. The government is trying to arrest the fall in foreign exchange reserves that have been declining since October last year. Recently, Finance Minister Ishaq Dar said the reserves will grow to $23bn by the end of the current fiscal year. Reserves of the SBP fell 2.5bn to $16.5bn in the last six months. The country’s overall reserves declined by the same amount over that period, which shows the reserves held by private banks recorded no decline.
The government has released over Rs546 billion for various development projects across the country under the Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP). According to statistics provided by Ministry of Planning and Development, the aforementioned amount was released till 31st of the last month of the current financial year. National Highway Authority (NHA) has been provided over one hundred and sixty-six billion rupees while over twenty-four billion rupees have been given to Railways Division.
The Sui Northern Gas Pipe Line (SNGPL), providing gas supply throughout Punjab and KP, has removed gas connections of almost 18,735 consumers in first three months of the calendar year on account of default of around Rs894.206 million. According to the data available with The Nation, the SNGPL cut off around 450 connections of its commercial consumers between January 2017 and March 2017 due to non-payment of outstanding dues of about Rs74.047 million. Similarly, the company disconnected gas supply to 74 domestic special consumers over non-payment of Rs18.793 million during this period while gas supply to around 101 industrial consumers was severed on account of default of almost Rs561.607 million.
Federal Minister for Planning, Development & Reform Ahsan Iqbal on Sunday said that 85 million jobs were up for grabs in China due to the relocation of those industries there that had lost their competitive advantage, and CPEC provided Pakistan with an opportunity to have a major share in these jobs. He was speaking to party workers and youth delegations from Balochistan. “Our enemies in 2013 were branding Pakistan as the most dangerous country. Now they are hatching conspiracies by creating doubts about CPEC success,” he said, and added, “But all their efforts are destined to fail.”
Today TRG, DCL, ATRL and ISL can lead the market in the positive direction.
Technical Analysis
The Bench Mark KSE100 index is capped by a resistant trend line and its 61.8% correction of its last bearish rally at 47960 which was high of last trading session so it calls for a cautious approach while trading as Index is moving in a bearish trend channel and is failing to recover from its corrections since last one month. Next resistant region are standing at 48088 and 48325 while 48505 is a major resistant region which can push index back again into a new bearish trend if index fails to close above this region. If index fails to close above 48102 in coming session then it can be pushed back towards 46886, therefore trading with strict stop loss of 47633 is recommended.
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