Previous Session Recap
The Bench Mark KSE100 Index Opened at 49188.56, posted a day high of 49254.77 and a day low of 48562.00 during last trading session whereas session suspended at 48655.72 with a net change of -536.03 points and net trading volume of 50.03 million shares. Daily trading volume of KSE100 listed companies dropped by 28.08 million shares or 35.95% on DoD basis.
Foreign Investors remained in net buying position of 2.54 million shares and net value of Foreign Inflow increased by 3.38 million US Dollars. Categorically Foreign Corporate and Overseas Pakistani Investors remained in net buying position of 1.54 and 1.06 million shares but Foreign Individual Investors remained in net selling position of 0.06 million shares. While on the other hand Local Individuals, Mutual Funds and Brokers remained in net selling position of 4.31, 4.23 and 1.49 million shares respectively but Local Companies and Banks remained in net buying position of 5.3 and 0.87 million shares.
Analytical Review
The pound GBP/USD retreated almost 0.1 percent to $1.2208 after both houses backed the so-called Brexit bill, opening the door for May to start the clock on the required two-year negotiation period by the end of this month. The euro EUR=EBS hovered at $1.0656, failing to recover any of Monday 0.2 percent loss. On Monday, sterling had jumped 0.36 percent after Scotland First Minister Nicola Sturgeon demanded a new independent referendum in late 2018 or early 2019, once the terms of the UK exit from the EU are clearer. The MSCI broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS was up 0.1 percent, while Japanese Nikkei .N225 inched down 0.1 percent. Chinese shares saw early gains rolled back after combined retail sales for January and February rose only 9.5 percent from a year earlier, missing expectations of 10.5 percent. Fixed-asset investment expanded 8.9 percent, and industrial output grew 6.3 percent, both beating forecasts. The CSI 300 index .CSI300 opened the day lower, then rose but gave back that gain after the data release.
The state-run Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDCL) has struck a new oil and gas discovery in an area of Hyderabad, Sindh, raising hopes of fresh hydrocarbon openings. The discovery at exploratory well Chhutto-1 is the first hydrocarbon find in Bulri Shah Karim Tando Muhammad Khan in District Hyderabad. Initial results encouraged the company to go for two more wells in the same licence areas, of which one well has already been marked for immediate drilling. The OGDCL is the operator of joint venture of Nim Block having 95 per cent share with 5pc shareholding of the federal government through Government Holdings (Pvt) Ltd (GHPL).
Pakistani exports of services witnessed growth of nearly 14 per cent year-on-year to $37.71 million in January, the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) reported on Monday. The increase will help the government control the widening current account deficit in 2016-17. In the first seven months of the current fiscal year, exports of services recorded negative growth. Similarly, they fell 10.30pc to $2.895 billion in July-Jan. The annual drop was 7.14pc to $5.46bn in 2015-16. The services sector has emerged as the main driver of economic growth. Its share increased from 56pc of the gross domestic product (GDP) in 2005-06 to 57.7pc in 2014-15.
State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Governor Ashraf Mahmood Wathra discussed important issues facing the economy and the financial sector with presidents of commercial banks here on Monday. Discussing key issues at the meeting such as trade-based money laundering, Wathra said it was a well-known fact that trade transactions had the elements of under invoicing and over invoicing that facilitated transfer of value across the borders. Primary responsibility in this regard lies with the Pakistan Customs. However, since documents are negotiated and L/Cs are settled through the formal banking sector, banks are required to enhance their capacity to process foreign trade transactions with extreme care and diligence, he said.
State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Governor Ashraf Mahmood Wathra expressed little concern on Monday about a soaring trade deficit. The deficit during the first eight months of 2016-17 reached $20 billion, which is record high. It can touch $30bn by the end of the fiscal year if the widening gap is not curtailed. “The import included $6bn of capital goods. These machines will help increase exports and reduce the deficit,” said the governor while speaking to journalists.
ENGRO, LUCK, DSL and Overall Banking Sector (HMB and SCBPL)
Technical Analysis
The Bench Mark KSE100 Index has completed its 100% expansion of its last hourly bearish correction and right now it has supportive regions ahead at 48336 and 48046 for current trading session but market is still under pressure. For current trading session index may take a spike towards 48900 or 49105 but it seems that at day end it will close in bearish mode as it is being pushed downward by a strong resistant trend line. Trend would be changed if Index would close above 49336 so until it closes above that region selling on spikes is recommended, closing below 47900 will call for 46000 in coming days. Right now a cautious approach is recommended while trading.
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