Previous Session Recap
The Bench Mark KSE100 Index Opened at 48339.32, posted a day high of 48727.44 and a day low of 48334.13 whereas trading session suspended at 48409.35 with a net change of 119.69 points and net trading volume of 132.74 million shares. Daily trading volume of KSE100 listed companies increased by 31.28 million shares or 30.83% on DoD basis.
Foreign Investors remained in net selling position of 12.14 million shares and net value of Foreign Inflow dropped by 4.98 million US Dollars. Categorically Foreign Corporate and Overseas Pakistani Investors remained in net selling position of 7.34 and 4.8 million shares but Foreign Individuals remained in net buying position of 2610 shares. While on the other side Local Individuals and Mutual Funds remained in net selling position of 12.11 and 2.16 million shares but Local Companies, Banks and Brokers remained in net buying position of 14.31, 9.75 and 2.64 million shares respectively.
Analytical Review
Asian stocks were slightly weaker early on Monday, following Wall Street declines and the G20 decision to drop a pledge to avoid trade protectionism, while the Federal Reserve seemingly dovish stance last week continued to drag the dollar lower. MSCI broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS was fractionally lower. Japan is closed for a holiday. On Friday, Wall Street was flat to negative, dragged lower by bank shares that fell along with Treasury yields. Financial leaders from the world biggest economies reiterated their warnings against competitive devaluations and disorderly foreign exchange markets at the meeting in the German town of Baden-Baden over the weekend. But they failed to agree on a commitment to keep global trade free and open, highlighting a global shift toward protectionism.
THE government raised 278.42bn Rupees from the auction of MTBs of various tenors held last Thursday, smaller against the received bids of 373bn Rupees. It was also lower against the auction target of 350bn Rupees. The cut off yields remained unchanged. Of the total raised amount, six month T-bills fetched the highest 139.60bn Rupees at a cut off yield of 5.98pc, followed by three month T-bill 138.81bn Rupees at 5.94pc. Bids received for 12 month bills were rejected. Three month T-bill attracted the highest amount of 190.75bn Rupees, six month T-bill 163.38bn Rupees, and 12 month T-bill 18.86bn Rupees.
Pakistan is in grip of energy crisis and feels draught like situation. The previous governments did not pay much heed to this problem and ultimately the problem became severe to more severe every year. In 2013, when PML-N came to power it vowed to resolve the crisis. In power generation, hydro power projects are the cheapest source. Pakistan has this capacity up to 50,000MWs, which is far more than our total requirement. At the time we are harnessing not even half of this capacity. Building a new mega dam adds 4 to 5 percent to Pakistan’s GDP – that means one dam will increase 110 billion dollar to 115 billion dollar. Hydro electricity is the cheapest, cleanest, and most efficient source of power known to humans. It is the only long-term solution to Pakistanis insatiable and growing appetite for cheap electricity. The government is taking many of the right steps to develop these resources.
Pakistan Railways is taking various steps to upgrade three main railway tracks, including Main Line (ML)-1, ML-2 and ML-3 under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The upgradation and doubling of 1872 kilometres long ML-1 from Karachi to Peshawar, including 55-km Taxila-Havelian section is being done. Additionally, the establishment of a dry port near Havelian has been declared as Early Harvest Project under the CPEC, official sources in the ministry told APP. They said the project also included doubling of the track from Shandara to Peshawar Cantonment and increasing the speed to 160 km per hour, where it is possible. The project would be initiated shortly and is expected to complete in a period of five years, the sources added.
Amid slowdown in revenue growth and higher funding requirements ahead of the elections, the PML-N government appears set to present the last budget of its five-year tenure — for the first time in its third stint. Unlike the past four budgets, PML-N performance would be judged at the end of the last fiscal year on the basis of the promises it has made since 2013. Foremost among them is the elimination of power outages — a promise that brought the PML-N to power and will determine its future in the elections next year. The upcoming summer will actually test the stability of the power system because next year could turn out to be a slippery one when the PML-N will not be in control of the system.
TRG, BOP, FATIMA and Overall Textile Sector (NML) can lead the market in the positive direction.
Technical Analysis
The Bench Mark KSE100 Index has bounced back after testing its supportive trend line of its bearish trend channel, but right now it has strong resistance ahead from 48760 and 49105 which falls on its correction level. Market can be pushed back from 48760 if it fails to close above this region on hourly chart. It is recommended to either stay sideline or trade with strict stop losses as it is expected that market will face pressure during current trading session. Index may find support around 48012 and 47900 but it is being pushed downward by resistant trend lines and hourly corrections.
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