Previous Session Recap
Trading volume at PSX floor increased by 114.75 million shares or 29.19% on DoD basis, whereas the benchmark KSE100 index opened at 40,270.52, posted a day high of 40,809.31 and a day low of 40,270.52 points during last trading session while session suspended at 40,641.10 points with net change of 370.58 points and net trading volume of 327.24 million shares. Daily trading volume of KSE100 listed companies increased by 87.14 million shares or 36.29% on DoD basis.
Foreign Investors remained in net selling positions of 11.09 million shares and value of Foreign Inflow increased by 1.46 million US Dollars. Categorically, Foreign Individual, Corporate and Overseas Pakistanis Investors remained in net selling positions of 0.02, 2.68 and 8.39 million shares. While on the other side Local Individuals and Mutual Fund remained in net buying positions of 25.80 and 6.45 million shares but Local Companies, Banks, NBFCs, Brokers and Insurance Companies remained in net selling positions of 4.76, 7.25, 1.09, 3.26 and 1.51 million shares respectively.
Analytical Review
Asian shares gain as Trump fuels trade deal optimism, oil firm on OPEC+ output cut
Asian stocks gained on Friday as investors took heart from U.S. President Donald Trump saying trade talks with China were “moving right along”, and U.S. oil prices sat near 2-1/2-month highs after OPEC and other producers agreed to cut output. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was up 0.5% and Japan’s Nikkei added 0.3%. Australian shares rose 0.2% and South Korea’s Kospi climbed 0.8%, while China’s Shanghai Composite and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng indexes gaining 0.1% and 0.9%, respectively. Trump’s upbeat tone in comments on Thursday was enough to spark buying, despite a lack of agreement between Washington and Beijing over whether existing tariffs should be dropped as part of a preliminary deal to end their trade war. “Many players have taken a wait-and-see attitude given a lack of fresh trading cues ahead of U.S. paryolls data and the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting. But clearly, the mood is quite positive,” said Yasuo Sakuma, chief investment officer at Libra Investments.
Govt trying to get $9bn Chinese loan for railway project at 2pc
No allocations would be made in the next budget for unapproved projects and efforts are in progress to secure a $9 billion Chinese loan for Main Railway Line (ML-1) at around two per cent interest, a Senate committee was told on Thursday. At a meeting of the panel, federal Minister for Planning, Development & Reforms Asad Umar said he had issued directives that no unapproved project should be included in the next Public Sector Development Programme. No project will be included in the PSDP in future till land is purchased for it. He said it would also be settled in advance whether a project would be funded by the federal government or the province concerned. “We have seen the fate of Karachi Green Line and other projects,” the minister said while referring to cost escalations and delays in various projects due to undecided issues.
Exporters to get Rs3bn refunds shortly: Hafeez
Finance Adviser Dr Abdul Hafeez Shaikh on Thursday said that another Rs2-3 billion sales tax refunds will be issued to exporters in the next couple of days. The adviser said this in a meeting with a group of leading businessmen from various export contributing nearly $2bn exports to review progress on the issues pertaining to payment of sales tax refunds. An official statement issued after the meeting said the businessmen thanked the adviser and his team in the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) for ensuring payment of Rs32bn sales tax refunds. The adviser told the businessmen that the FBR was working hard to facilitate the exporters and another Rs2-3bn tax refunds would be issued in the coming days. During the meeting, various proposals were put forward from the businessmen and exporters and FBR was advised to work more aggressively on simplifying the processes through automation for early and prompt payment of sales tax refunds.
Moody’s upgrades outlook for five banks to ‘stable’
Moody’s Investors Service on Thursday changed the outlook of five leading banks from ‘negative’ to ‘stable’ and affirmed their existing B3 long-term local currency deposit ratings. The banks include Allied Bank Ltd (ABL), Habib Bank Ltd (HBL), MCB Bank Ltd, National Bank of Pakistan (NBP) and United Bank Ltd (UBL), according to an announcement by the New York-based rating agency. The rating actions follow Moody’s decision on Dec 2 to affirm B3 rating for the Government of Pakistan and change the outlook on the sovereign rating to stable from negative and reflect reduced external vulnerability risks and ongoing fiscal reforms. However, the banks’ outlook was changed mainly due to high exposures to the government securities which is almost risk-free and high yielding.
Money recovered from tycoon lands in Supreme Court
After three-day confusion as to who will be the beneficiary of 190 million pounds [Rs39 billion] recovered by the United Kingdom’s National Crime Agency (NCA) from the family of real estate tycoon Malik Riaz, the money has been transferred to the Supreme Court’s accounts and the government has requested it for the transfer of the money to the national exchequer. “The money has been transferred to the Supreme Court and we have already filed a request before the apex court that the money should be given to us [state of Pakistan],” said Special Assistant to the Prime Minister (SAPM) on Accountability Mirza Shahzad Akbar at a joint press conference with Communications Minister Murad Saeed. He later confirmed it during a private TV talk show. Besides, he told Dawn that out of 190m pounds, 140m pounds had been transferred while 50m pounds would be received later when a property of 1 Hyde Park [owned by Malik Riaz] would be sold.
Asian stocks gained on Friday as investors took heart from U.S. President Donald Trump saying trade talks with China were “moving right along”, and U.S. oil prices sat near 2-1/2-month highs after OPEC and other producers agreed to cut output. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was up 0.5% and Japan’s Nikkei added 0.3%. Australian shares rose 0.2% and South Korea’s Kospi climbed 0.8%, while China’s Shanghai Composite and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng indexes gaining 0.1% and 0.9%, respectively. Trump’s upbeat tone in comments on Thursday was enough to spark buying, despite a lack of agreement between Washington and Beijing over whether existing tariffs should be dropped as part of a preliminary deal to end their trade war. “Many players have taken a wait-and-see attitude given a lack of fresh trading cues ahead of U.S. paryolls data and the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting. But clearly, the mood is quite positive,” said Yasuo Sakuma, chief investment officer at Libra Investments.
No allocations would be made in the next budget for unapproved projects and efforts are in progress to secure a $9 billion Chinese loan for Main Railway Line (ML-1) at around two per cent interest, a Senate committee was told on Thursday. At a meeting of the panel, federal Minister for Planning, Development & Reforms Asad Umar said he had issued directives that no unapproved project should be included in the next Public Sector Development Programme. No project will be included in the PSDP in future till land is purchased for it. He said it would also be settled in advance whether a project would be funded by the federal government or the province concerned. “We have seen the fate of Karachi Green Line and other projects,” the minister said while referring to cost escalations and delays in various projects due to undecided issues.
Finance Adviser Dr Abdul Hafeez Shaikh on Thursday said that another Rs2-3 billion sales tax refunds will be issued to exporters in the next couple of days. The adviser said this in a meeting with a group of leading businessmen from various export contributing nearly $2bn exports to review progress on the issues pertaining to payment of sales tax refunds. An official statement issued after the meeting said the businessmen thanked the adviser and his team in the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) for ensuring payment of Rs32bn sales tax refunds. The adviser told the businessmen that the FBR was working hard to facilitate the exporters and another Rs2-3bn tax refunds would be issued in the coming days. During the meeting, various proposals were put forward from the businessmen and exporters and FBR was advised to work more aggressively on simplifying the processes through automation for early and prompt payment of sales tax refunds.
Moody’s Investors Service on Thursday changed the outlook of five leading banks from ‘negative’ to ‘stable’ and affirmed their existing B3 long-term local currency deposit ratings. The banks include Allied Bank Ltd (ABL), Habib Bank Ltd (HBL), MCB Bank Ltd, National Bank of Pakistan (NBP) and United Bank Ltd (UBL), according to an announcement by the New York-based rating agency. The rating actions follow Moody’s decision on Dec 2 to affirm B3 rating for the Government of Pakistan and change the outlook on the sovereign rating to stable from negative and reflect reduced external vulnerability risks and ongoing fiscal reforms. However, the banks’ outlook was changed mainly due to high exposures to the government securities which is almost risk-free and high yielding.
After three-day confusion as to who will be the beneficiary of 190 million pounds [Rs39 billion] recovered by the United Kingdom’s National Crime Agency (NCA) from the family of real estate tycoon Malik Riaz, the money has been transferred to the Supreme Court’s accounts and the government has requested it for the transfer of the money to the national exchequer. “The money has been transferred to the Supreme Court and we have already filed a request before the apex court that the money should be given to us [state of Pakistan],” said Special Assistant to the Prime Minister (SAPM) on Accountability Mirza Shahzad Akbar at a joint press conference with Communications Minister Murad Saeed. He later confirmed it during a private TV talk show. Besides, he told Dawn that out of 190m pounds, 140m pounds had been transferred while 50m pounds would be received later when a property of 1 Hyde Park [owned by Malik Riaz] would be sold.
Market is expected to remain volatile during current trading session.
Technical Analysis
The Benchmark KSE100 index is not becoming able to close above a descending trend line on weekly chart since start of this week and it's expected that index would face some pressure during current trading session if it would not succeed in opening with a positive gap above 40,760 points during current trading session. Hourly momentum indicators have changed their direction towards bearish side and it's expected that index would face some pressure towards 40,350 points and if it would succeed in find some ground there then it could bounce back but penetration below that region would call for 40,260 points and weekly closing at that region would impact index very seriously and it would become difficult for index to breakout 40,800 or 41,200 points in next week. But bounce back from supportive region would push index towards its resistant regions. It's recommended to practice caution while trading today.
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